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The past year has been all about shifting debt. The financial crisis drove American homeowners into debt. Homeowners defaulted on their loans (or threatened to), driving the banks into debt. The U.S. government bailed out the banks, shifting debt to the public balance sheet. And over the last few weeks the "hot potato" has once again begun to move. From the government back to the private sector. Today, the U.S. Treasury announced the auction of 600,000 warrants in ...
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A new stimulus grant of $100 million from the U.S. Department of Energy that includes support for grid-scale energy storage projects is the latest sign of the growing need to find ways of storing energy from electricity production. While traditionally storage has focused on balancing peak and off-peak usage, the need has become greater with renewable energy forms like wind and solar because these depend on sources that are only intermittently available. California last month ...
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Now that the S&P rallied over 60 pct since last March 2009, and pretty much all other markets except housing and real estate have also rallied (anything connected to financial markets that received the half of the several $trillion of US and other central bank emergency money infusions beginning big around March 2009) it begs the question when there will be a correction. Or a crash. There is a hint in the above paragraph. Namely the US alone engineered about $1 to $2 trillion of ...
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I'm spending a few days in Toronto at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada annual conference. This is one of the mining industry's largest events. Thousands of companies descend on the site to promote their projects. Financiers from across the globe come armed with billions of dollars slated for mineral investment. Meetings with these individuals are often interesting. Yesterday my partner Phil O'Neill and I sat down with a fund manager who represents a group of ...
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PetroChina joined with Royal Dutch Shell in a bid for Australian coal-seam gas producer Arrow Energy as Asian countries scramble for a stake in the vast energy resources at their doorstep in Australia. The initial bid of A$3.3 billion (US$3 billion) valued Arrow’s shares at $4.45, a 28% premium on last week’s close of $3.48. But investors quickly bid up the shares even higher in anticipation of a sweetened bid.
Full article at: ...
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A year ago this week the stock market hit its nefarious 666 level on the S&P 500. Since that historic day, we have enjoyed a 68% appreciation in equities from their depressionary low. Not only has the bounce caused a chorus of perma-bulls to claim the worst of the recession is behind us, but also to declare that the bull market is here to stay. But the cacophonies from those pundits who are now categorizing the move off the lows as a long lasting trend are overlooking an important ...
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When oil crossed $120 a barrel for the first time in May 2008, oil cornucopians knew they were in trouble. Prices had quadrupled in just five years, yet had failed to bring new production online. Regular crude had flatlined around 74 million barrels per day (mbpd). The case for peak oil was looking stronger with every new uptick in crude futures. The following month, prominent peak oil critic and cornucopian Daniel Yergin of IHS-CERA changed his stance: The peak oil threat would be ...
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Chevron has acquired exploration rights for four shale gas concessions in southeastern Poland, the U.S. oil giant said in a recent SEC filing, joining other international companies in the hunt for unconventional gas reserves in Europe in the hopes of duplicating the production boom in the U.S. The need in Europe to reduce dependence on imported gas, especially from Russia, is spurring efforts to tap shale gas and coal-bed methane using new technologies that have proven successful in U.S. ...
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On September 1, 2009, Libya lavishly celebrated the 40 years in power of its leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Once qualified as the mad dog of the Middle East by President Ronald Reagan, Gaddafi has demonstrated a sheer ability to make of his once pariah country of 6 million people, one of the most assiduously courted both by countries and companies. Libya is the perfect example of Realpolitik at work where pragmatism prevails to promote commercial and national interests. The September 2009 ...
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Oil Market Summary for 03/01/2010 to 03/05/2010 Jobs data indicating that U.S. economic recovery might be picking up steam finally pushed crude oil futures decisively over the stubborn $80 a barrel threshold. Nymex’s benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at $81.50 a barrel, a seven-week high, after topping $82 in intraday trading. An unchanged unemployment rate of 9.7% and a smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls propelled both stocks and commodities higher on ...
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The European Commission added to its economic stimulus program with the largest-ever package of grants to energy infrastructure, including support for the Nabucco pipeline project that will help Europe diversify its sources of natural gas. The package of 2.3 billion euros ($3.1 billion) for 43 projects will attract 22 billion euros ($30 billion) of private sector energy investment, largely for pipelines and electricity interconnectors. “The problem is that, in today's economic ...
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Four Democratic senators entered into the clean energy vs. jobs fray, charging that too much federal stimulus money for wind energy projects is going to foreign suppliers and creating jobs abroad instead of in the U.S. The administration and the domestic wind energy industry immediately rejected the lawmakers’ charges, as the political pressure to reduce unemployment continued to fuel the economic debate in Washington. Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, joined by Sens. Bob Casey ...
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The elections in Iraq on March 7, 2010, are likely to serve as an important indicator of the prospects for a resolution of the long-running dispute over the administration of the ethnically mixed and resource-rich province of Kirkuk in the north of the country. The Iraqi Kurds have repeatedly called for Kirkuk to be transferred to the control of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which already administers three provinces in the predominantly Kurdish north of Iraq. ...
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The European currency has depreciated dramatically against the US dollar in the past few months, falling from over $1.50 on December 1st to $1.35 today. The move has caused many investors to question the viability of the European Union and its currency, while also serving to reinforce the notion of the USD’s position as the world’s reserve currency. To be clear, there has never been any question in my mind that the euro is just another flawed fiat currency. It could never ...
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A fight brewing over the allocation of costs for transmission lines to connect wind and solar power plants to end users is the latest sign that fossil-fuel electricity producers are stepping up the fight against renewable energy sources. A coalition of 10 big utilities this week announced it would oppose provisions in Senate bill 1462 that gives the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authority to broadly allocate costs for long-distance transmission lines linking power sources to ...
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The euro as presently configured is doomed due to structural imbalances between mercantilist and consumer nations. A "euro1 and euro2" system would allow a face-saving demise to euroland's single currency. I've got a bad feeling about the Euro: the structural imbalances I presented yesterday irrevocably doom the single currency. Just to recap the cycle and its consequences, here is a chart: Click here for chart: The Mercantilist Nation - Consumer-Debt Nation ...
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South Korea is coming to northeast British Columbia. It was reported this week that state-run Korea Gas has signed a deal with Canadian gas major EnCana covering three fields in the province of British Columbia. Korea Gas will take a 50% interest, for a price tag of $1.1 billion. Details are scant. EnCana itself has not commented. But the deal almost certainly focuses on gas from the Horn River Basin/Montney shale play. Major producers have been flocking to northeast B.C. ...
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European shale-derived natural gas could become a reality far sooner, and in far larger quantities, than markets expect. In a Securities and Exchange disclosure from last Thursday Chevron confirmed that it won new rights to explore Poland for potential shale gas, although the size of the acreage was not divulged. Noted in the annual report, Chevron has acquired rights to explore for natural gas in the Grabowiec concession, located in the southeastern part of Poland. The confirmation ...
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Iraq Awards Drilling Contract as it Reaches for Ambitious Oil Production Target Iraq announced a $318 million contract with a unit of Turkish Petroleum to drill 45 wells in the supergiant Rumaila oilfield as the country strives to regain and even surpass pre-war production levels. With the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world, Iraq said at an industry conference last month that it wants to raise its production capacity to 12 million barrels a day in the next six years from ...
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Natural gas prices ended lower last week despite slightly supportive weekly inventory data and cold weather forecasts in the US, as a slide in crude and more bad economic news pressured prices. Thursday's 172 billion cubic feet weekly inventory draw was neutral or supportive, as it was above the estimate of 169 bcf and well above last year's drop of 90 bcf and the five-year average decline of 132 bcf. The US Energy Information Administration report showed total domestic gas inventories ...
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The artificially-engendered revival of the dispute, which began in February 2010 between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, has been portrayed as a posturing by embattled Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, taking advantage of both the start of exploratory oil and gas drilling by British company Desire Petroleum in the Falklands waters, and the talks by Latin American and Caribbean leaders of the Rio Group in ...
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Energy efficiency is one of the themes most discussed by those who are interested in issues regarding energy and the environment. The key question is how effective these proposed solutions will be. Will these technological solutions labeled as ‘energy efficiency’ (i.e. an increase in power plants generation efficiency, cogeneration, home insulation, more efficient electric motors, cars, light bulbs, etc.) really lead to a decrease in the global demand for energy? First of all, ...
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I’ve received a copy of a new regulation framework for geothermal energy in Europe. Handed to me by a colleague last week, whose associate led the drafting of the document. Geothermal is still an infant industry. In many countries, governments lack even a basic mechanism for granting licenses on geothermal projects. There just isn't any legal-work around giving a company rights to hot groundwater. The new framework attempts to address this and several other issues for ...
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Texas became the latest state to launch an environmental watchdog for energy development as a nonprofit group set its sights on the Barnett Shale drilling in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The Texas campaign of the Oil and Gas Accountability Project, after similar campaigns in New Mexico and Colorado, is part of a growing concern about the environmental impact of techniques like hydraulic fracturing that are creating an energy boom as the U.S. exploits vast deposits of shale oil and ...
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Crude oil broke through the $80 a barrel ceiling repeatedly during the week but kept falling back as hedge funds placed big bets on the Euro’s decline. The fiscal drama in Greece held global markets hostage much of the week as worries about the impact of the Greek crisis on the euro outweighed comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke about continued low interest rates in the U.S., pushing the euro down against the dollar and damping crude prices. The euro recovered ...
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There has been some unusual action on the Japanese commodities markets that demands a comment. I mentioned earlier this week that over the last two weeks the Japanese have revved up several new structured investment products tracking commodities. There are now some "seismic signals" registering in those markets, showing these new ETFs and trusts may be having an immediate impact. On Tuesday, open interest in rubber futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange suddenly ...
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It’s a truism that the 21st century future of not just Asia, but the entire world, will be significantly determined by the relationship between the globe’s two fastest-growing large economies, China and India. As most observers know, there have long been kinks in the political military relationship between the two countries, most notably their direct armed confrontation in 1962. This was generally seen as a military victory for China, and provoked a thoroughgoing ...
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What's more important: upside or stability? That debate constantly rages amongst commodities producers. Especially when it comes to deciding whether to sell gold, copper or oil at spot versus long-term pricing. Long-term pricing is the stable option. Like being in a good marriage. A seller has a decent price, one they can count on. There probably aren't going to be any big surprises. An acceptable profit will be made. Spot pricing is the "one-night stand" of the ...
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Reports that French oil giant Total is ready to invest $20 billion in Nigerian oil and gas development spread through energy markets in an unlikely bit of positive news for the beleaguered African producer. Total, Europe’s third-largest oil company and largest refiner, has its hands full trying to resolve a strike that has paralyzed its refining capacity in France and dampened global oil prices.
Full article at: ...
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While the Iraqi government has made overtures to its Kurdish counterpart in the north to end an oil standoff, much remains in doubt without an actual law keeping the industry in check - rules which this time the Kurds are pressing for rather than Baghdad.
For a long time, the northern Kurdistan region was seen as the most attractive oil market in the country but the latest bid rounds in December and subsequent contract signings in the south have made it suddenly “less clear that Baghdad ...
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Just over a year ago, and spurred by an article in Time, I wrote a post on the possible global supply of lithium, which is used in renewable batteries, and a major choice for use in the batteries of electric vehicles, such as the Chevy Volt. Since the story has acquired more recent interest this week, and with new information, it is worth re-visiting the topic. I began the original post by noting that our first introduction to these batteries was in our role as an Explosives Lab when we ...
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China is the key to the metals markets today. And there are some important signals about this market registering in the last few weeks. Last month, I wrote about diverging global shipping indexes. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks global shipping rates, has been falling the last several weeks. While the China Containerized Freight Index, tracking solely Chinese shipping prices, has been on a tear. The CCFI is up 12% since the beginning of January. This could indicate an increase ...
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A move Thursday by the Federal Reserve to raise the discount rate – the rate it charges banks for emergency loans – did however propel the dollar higher against the euro. News on Friday that the core inflation rate in the U.S. actually fell 0.1% in January – the first decline since 1982 – dispelled worries that the Fed would need to tighten further interest rates to combat inflation and led to a lower dollar on Friday.
Full article at: ...
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Last month, I explained in an article how and why the world is approaching a worldwide peak in oil production sometime in the next decade. Although there are large implications throughout the economy, I want to say upfront that I do not think this will bring on Armageddon. Oil prices that are significantly higher than earlier in our lifetimes will bring about great change, yet I firmly believe that our economy has the ability to successfully adapt. Despite the strong headwind oil scarcity will ...
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The Obama Administration is currently pursuing a misguided and dangerous war on the oil and natural gas industry, blaming it for not doing enough to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Not only does this belligerent policy fail to improve the situation it was designed to address, it will also place U.S. energy security at much greater risk in the long run. The Administration has chosen to pursue a two-pronged attack of (1) imposing billions of dollars in additional taxes on oil and ...
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The Libyan government has been sounding off lately about boosting the profile of its oil and gas market, but it’s questionable whether international companies will ignore the government’s missteps in the industry - not to mention the recent lackluster energy finds - and keep injecting money into the North African country. The head of Libya’s National Oil Corp., Shokri Ghanem, has his eye on expanding gas exploration and production in a bid to raise exports to Europe, as ...
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On January 18, 2010, during the discussion of the Global Energy Outlook panel of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, Mr. Peter Voser, President and CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, pointed out the potential of natural gas that has consistently been downplayed throughout the world as a substantial source of future energy supply. Imagine this: A new technique for drilling into layers of a black rock called shale unlocks vast amounts of previously inaccessible natural gas. As the pace of ...
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The Red Queen's Race is an apt analogy for the meltdown in assets and debt now swamping the global economy.
The Red Queen's race refers to running very fast to stay in the same place. As asset values fall globally (except where massive government stimulus has pushed the day of reckoning forward a bit), debt holders are frantically paying down or writing down debt--running very fast--but finding themselves in the same place--zero equity--despite their prodigious efforts.
Full article at: ...
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A major moratorium on U.S. domestic oil and gas exploration expired in 2008, yet its extension is now being considered. Thing is, despite vigorous alternative energy efforts, the U.S. will remain extremely dependent on fossil fuels through 2030. This is even assuming that the U.S. pushes alternative energy at the same time, according to a report on the moratorium by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and Gas Technology Institute (GTI).
Full article at: ...
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Ben Bernanke is making sure the Fed’s exit strategy goes as easily as a camel can pass through the eye of a needle. Instead of choosing to just sell assets and unwind the amount of securities it holds, the Fed chairman is seeking to be creative once again—as he was in the buildup of its balance sheet--and increase the amount of interest it pays on excess reserves. He said this in a prepared statement for the House Financial Services Committee that was released on Wednesday, ...
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The IEA has apparently calculated that OPEC earned 575 billion (U.S.) dollars in oil export revenues in 2009, a relatively depressed year, and might earn more than 700 billion this year. If this is true, I choose to believe that OPEC's future strategy is almost identical to the one I would employ if I were in their place. I am sure that this confession will win me neither friends nor employers, however as we said in the United States when I was a boy, "I would rather be right than ...
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In 20 years I predict energy wars over oil and gas resources. By the time it becomes politically profitable to react to problems in the transport energy sector, it will be too late for significant development of alternatives and too politically risky not to fight over remaining ...
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The U.S. has a lot of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) rods from nuclear reactors, which need to be disposed off in deep, protected underground sites. Yet these rods give off massive amounts of heat as they slowly cool. Jumping to oil extraction challenges, there are massive amounts of oil locked in U.S. shale formations, which could equal three times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia even using relatively conservative extraction estimates. Problem is, they require inordinate amounts of energy ...
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The simmering difficulties in the US strategic relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) were, by the beginning of 2010, ready to emerge despite the attempts of the US Administration of Pres. Barack Obama to show a pattern of deference to Beijing. But the internal US economic policies, leading to the de facto devaluation of the US dollar, seemed, if anything, a deliberate move to devalue the worth of the PRC’s massive investments in US dollar instruments. All that ...
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U.S. lawmakers are toughening their stance on Iran’s energy industry with new economic penalties, but experts doubt the Islamic regime will pay much attention and is more likely to open the doors even wider to other players eager to replace fleeing investors. Long on Congress’ radar screen, Iran is being targeted by two bills: The Senate’s Dodd-Shelby Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act passed in late January; and the House’s Iran Refined ...
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”Endless Oil” is the title of a piece in Business Week (Jan, 18, 2010). Its author is Stanley Reed, and it was interesting for me because I remember when Business Week would not have published a tissue of nonsense like that article, and perhaps even more important, I was surprised when I saw the names of some of the persons whose opinions were cited. Russian oil output is probably close to peaking, and in any event the director of one of the largest Russian firms says that his ...
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After starting the week on a firmer note, oil prices fell sharply toward the end of the week in a general market sell-off as investors sought the dollar as a safe haven amid worries about European Union economies. Debt problems that have plagued Greece are now spreading to Portugal and Spain, driving the euro down temporarily below $1.36 and bringing the dollar to an 8-month high. Because oil and other commodities are priced in dollars, gains in the U.S. currency usually translate into ...
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This might be the year's most important news. Which got almost no press globally. Something strange happened in Japan in December. Shipments of aluminum from Mozambique and Brazil showed up in the northwestern ports of Fushiki and Fukui. Shipping aluminum to Japan isn't weird. The nation is an important consumer. But shipping South American and African aluminum to northwest Japan is strange. These are minor ports. Usually such imports would be unloaded on the Pacific side, ...
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As widely reported, the fall in WTI was part of a larger sell-off in commodities. Triggered by strengthening of the U.S. dollar. With all the focus on yesterday's selling, there was less press on the things being bought. Most notably U.S. Treasury notes. Alerts registered for falling yields on three-, five- and ten-year Treasury securities. Yields plunged as traders piled into these investments, driving up prices.
Full article at: ...
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During the decade after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, China was generally seen throughout East Asia as a friendly alternative power-center to the American-led Washington-consensus that told countries in trouble they had to force their banks to declare their bad loans and clean up the political influence of big finance – commands which, of course, the US completely ignored when its own banking & insurance sectors went over the cliff in Black September 2008. But in the last ...
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David Threlkeld of metals trading advisor Resolved Inc. got some press this week. That happens when you predict a catastrophe. Threlkeld was quoted by Bloomberg repeating an ominous prediction he first made in May 2006. The call? That the copper market is heading for a catastrophic collapse. With the LME price falling to below $1 per pound. Threlkeld has some credentials. He was one of the first to expose rogue copper trader Yasuo Hamanaka in the mid-1990s. And point out that ...
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In a global economic scene dominated by continuing uncertainty, one of the few “sure bets” has SEEMED to be the “green tech / cleantech” sector. But in the last few months, significant bumps have appeared in what has almost universally been considered one of the few relatively unblocked roads to “certain” prosperity – at least according to obsessive enthusiasts like Tom Friedman.
Full article at: ...
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Increasingly, it would seem the government is intent on curbing speculation and contract ownership of core commodities. Starting last summer, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, began to debate new position limits on traders and speculators in the energy complex. Regulators blame the big spike in commodities in 2008 on hedge funds and other speculators and have decided to impose limits on contracts.
Full article at: ...
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The Middle East peace talks are at a deadlock. Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to move ahead with the plan established by the so-called Quartet – the US., U.N., EU and Russia -- have faltered and come to a complete standstill. Continuing with this inertia will have a long-term negative effect on the future of the region both from a political point of view as well as from a business perspective. With the exception of a few risk-takers, what company or business executive ...
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The problem of all this debt and fiscal profligacy is clear. Every dollar of debt is a promise to tax that same dollar in the future…and with interest. Estimates indicate that the publically traded debt will rise to $18.5 trillion by 2020. To compare, the total National debt outstanding today is already an unbelievable $12.3 trillion and the publically traded portion of that debt is $7.7 trillion. Having publically traded debt increase from $7.7 trillion to 18.5 trillion may result in ...
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Often the green movement’s whipping boy, the oil and gas sector has no chance of escaping the scourge of climate change, an issue that everyone from international leaders to even Osama bin Laden are bemoaning these days. From the conference halls of Copenhagen in December, to somewhere near the Afghan-Pakistani border in recent days, critics are sounding off about what the crossroads of lax industry ways and weak government rules has done to the environment. Full article at: ...
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A great - and still growing - divergence appeared in 2009 between public statements by leaders and their public performance. The politicized, romanticized theater of increasingly populist “democratic” leaders and media seemed to be of a different planet from activities taking place in the real world. While a large part of the global population appears still transfixed by words, there is a growing perception that great fissures already rend the global strategic ...
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While I’m disgusted with the level of banker’s bonuses and with the obscene leverage practices financial institutions undertook, I do not think the answer to how we clean up them up now is to pile on yet more regulation. To be sure, banks that helped bring down the world economy and then subsequently got bailed out by the taxpayers should not be making billions of dollars in bonuses, especially while the middle class is suffering so greatly. And if we’re going to keep the FDIC ...
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Gazprom faces regular opprobrium for its bullying ways of using energy as a pressure and political tool. Seen by some, mostly Russians, as the symbol of a successful and strong Russia, others see it as a dominating juggernaut, economic right arm of the Kremlin implementing, or should we say, imposing its policies by using energy as a weapon. Just like Louis XIV used to say “L’Etat c’est moi” (I am the State), Gazprom could say the same in light of its commercial ...
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Over the next year or two, you will likely find yourself paying a LOT more at the gas pump. Big changes are taking place in the oil industry . With increased global demand and declining supply, easy oil is not so easy anymore. Everything is about to get more expensive. From gasoline to anti-freeze, life jackets to golf balls, and eye glasses to fertilizer. There are very few things in the modern world that aren't made from oil, made by machines dependant on oil, or shipped by vehicles powered ...
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Substantial and unmistakable signs of profound change in the global strategic framework have become concrete in the past year. The stress in the structure has already developed into fissures. The transformation, in reality, has been underway since the end of the Cold War, and will continue and compound for at least another decade. The balance of power is changing. Apart from the wave of globalization, which was really a precursor event, what is now emerging is the first truly fundamental ...
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President Barack Obama delivers his State of the Union address this evening with the hard pivot to the economy, jobs and financial reform on full display with a focus on tax credits for small business ... House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform holds much hyped hearing on federal efforts to bail out AIG with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today. Even with widely-spread AIG e-mail leaks, WSJ notes that no 'smoking guns' have emerged that could really hurt Geithner.
Full article ...
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Indonesia, although a considerable distance from being a state capable of projecting power, has begun to bring greater focus to its strategic situation, and, at the same time, it is moving toward a consolidation of the Yudhoyono era. Even absent a blue water/blue skies military projection, continued movement along these paths seems set to give Indonesia greater brown water defensive control over the vast Indonesian island empire, and make it a more significant gatekeeper of the South-East Asian ...
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As we've discussed, Japan is using a lot less oil these days. In the last year, Japanese consumption dropped 800,000 barrels per day. That's leaving the country's petroleum infrastructure under-used. Nippon Oil plans to idle 20% of its refineries by 2015. Oil storage facilities are also sitting empty. And the Japanese government is getting creative in putting this "empty space" to productive use. The plan is to use spare storage to guarantee secure oil supply.
Full article at: ...
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On 01/14/2010 Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, in a speech before the Geothermal Energy Association, repeated his intention to move a comprehensive energy and climate bill this spring, presumably after a “jobs” bill and a financial reregulation bill are dealt with. As stated earlier, we view the prospects for such a comprehensive energy and climate bill to be poor. Full article at: ...
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Business interests are voicing their support for Ben Bernanke to be given a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, while liberal grass-roots activists are making their opposition known. A Dow Jones Newswires tally shows that 40 senators support Bernanke's confirmation while 17 are opposed, and the rest have not publicly revealed their position. The vote is expected to be held Thursday or Friday. Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-quick-take-of-the-markets-today.html ...
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Let’s talk about sentiment. Last week was the worst market week since March 2009. Similarly, the three-day decline from Wednesday through Friday was the worst three days since March 2009. The market is now officially in the red for 2010. And the persons we’ve identified as market props (Bernanke, Geithner, etc) are now beginning to come under intense fire for their actions.
Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-get-ready-a-major-change-has-hit.html ...
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New measures by Chinese authorities to curb bank lending reversed a rally in energy prices early in the week, bringing West Texas Intermediate futures down more than 4% in the second half of the week to below $75 a barrel by Friday. China continued its efforts to slow down its economy and prevent overheating, and told some banks to stop making certain kinds of loans. The Chinese move on Wednesday hit all commodities across the board, from gold to lead, with the prospect of slower economic ...
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Like all world economies, India does not today have particularly good options regarding its energy needs. In the short term, it has little choice but to ramp up purchasing of fossil fuels. And while India would like to increase its use of renewable energy sources - like virtually everyone else except for the oil companies and their scurrilous supporters in the Republican Party and amongst lobbyists (who have resorted to outright lies in TV ads claiming that CO2 is green) - there is a dearth of ...
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US and Western European political leaders have begun to focus on Yemen as a source of projected instability and as a haven for jihadist terrorism against the West. This simplistic and overly narrow view has largely been a reaction to media reporting of the links of alleged (and unsuccessful) Nigerian-born terrorist bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to a radical Yemeni group, and to intense ongoing fighting between insurgents and Yemeni and Saudi government forces on the Yemen-Saudi ...
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Friday’s decline has got a lot of commentators asserting that the official top is in for the rally that started March 2009. The primary reason for these assertions is that stocks look to have broken the rising channel they entered during this last leg up.
Stocks traded in a parallel range from early November to mid-December. They then began another leg up trading within a rising parallel range. Friday’s sharp down day looks to have broken this range decisively.
Full article at: ...
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The shape of this economic recovery will not be in a “V”, as many pundits have promulgated, but instead may be the inversion of that letter…which will unfortunately look much more like a tepee. The upcoming downfall will surprise most investors who have been tricked into believing that a government can print and spend their way into prosperity. Undeniably, there has been a superficial recovery in the economy, which was presaged by a 65% rebound in the S&P 500 since ...
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When you think of Canada, which qualities come to mind: the world's peacekeeper, the friendly nation, a liberal counterweight to the harsher pieties of its southern neighbour, decent, civilised, fair, well-governed? Think again. This country's government is now behaving with all the sophistication of a chimpanzee's tea party.So amazingly destructive has Canada become ... I am watching the astonishing spectacle of a beautiful, cultured nation turning itself into a corrupt petro-state. Canada is ...
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The "Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee" dropped today on Capitol Hill. The odd-sounding measure ("You've caused a financial catastrophe. That'll be $8.50 please.") is the Obama government's latest plan to recoup the cost of bailing out the financial system over the last 18 months. The plan basically taxes large American banks. Based on how aggressive they are. Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-lending-takes-another-teeth-kick.html ...
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Market rallies on impressive trade figures from China. But the real excitement over today's news came in the oil sector. Oil hit $84 per barrel after it was reported that China's December crude imports hit a record 21.26 million tons. That's 160 million barrels. Or 5.15 million barrels per day. Full Article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-a-limp-oil-world.html
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Do hedge funds have an impact on energy trading? While the answer might seem intuitive, the debate as to whether they actually do has come to resemble the medieval theological dispute about how many angels can dance on the head of the pin. Because, like angels, many trades in energy futures are invisible, and it is often not possible to pinpoint where they take place. And yet, for most of us, including lawmakers on Capitol Hill, it seems obvious that when hedge funds buy and ...
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There still seems to be a deplorable uncertainty about the future price of the most important commodity in the world. A few months ago Philip Verleger – now apparently guest professor at the University of Alberta (Canada) – predicted an oil price of thirty dollars a barrel (= $30/b) for the end of the 2009, and now Mr Chris Watling – chief executive for Longview Economies – forecasts a sharp drop in the oil price (2009). He bases this forecast on an increased oil supply ...
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This question has been nagging the industrial world since the discovery of the first oil well is what happens when the wells begin to run dry. The oil companies, the people who manufacture cars and airplanes and legions of scientists and inventors have all been planning for that day. And as far-fetched as it might seem to some of us, that day will undoubtedly come, very probably within our lifetime. Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-what-happens-when-the-wells-run-dry.html ...
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2010 is starting with a decision that faced heated debates: Kazakhstan will hold the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for one year, despite what many considered as a questionable political and democratic track record. With 56 participating States from Europe, Central Asia and North America, the OSCE is the largest regional security organization in the world. The Organization deals with three dimensions of security - the politico-military, the ...
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Following the Japanese crash in the early 1990s, the government spent in an attempt to keep the economy afloat. Between 1990 and 2008, central government debt surged from $2.2 trillion to $8.5 trillion as the feds pumped out cash. Much of this went to public works. Roads, bridges and yes, swimming pools. This represents a 285% increase in government debt in under 20 years. During the same period, U.S. government debt grew from $2.4 trillion to $5.8 trillion. Well behind at only 140% ...
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There have been growing whispers coming from Tehran since mid-December 2009 which identify Iranian Ayatollah Shahroudi, as the new candidate-successor to Iran’s ailing “Supreme Leader” Shahroudi is better suited than any other Iranian aspirant leader to bring a Shi’ite-ruled Iraq under Tehran’s hegemony and increase Iran’s influence in the Caspian Sea Basin. Iran’s mid-June 2009 intense presidential elections, which led to the current crisis, were ...
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Climate Change is having a great impact on global perspectives, which is leading Governments and Businesses to take a serious look at Carbon Sequestration (CCS.) This means that instead of drilling gases out of the bottom of the planet, there is now a push to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the gases discarded by industry and transporting and injecting it into underground geological formations. On November 4, 2009, European Union Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs and US Secretary for ...
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Inside Beltwayistan, a number of Bushevik oil patch zombies still roam the recession-blasted landscape mindlessly chanting their Caspian mantra, “Happiness is multiple pipelines” - with the caveat that they flow westwards and bypass both Russia and Iran. They’ve now added a new word to their vocabulary, “Nabucco,” and worse, have bitten a number of Obama administration officials and visiting European politicians, who have joined their shuffling ranks. Their ...
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Iran’s ruling mullahs are confident anew in their country’s ability to surge to a hegemonic position in the Middle East without a major war. The main reason for the mullahs’ confidence is their interpretation of the appeasement policies of the US Barack Obama Administration. Most significant is the undeclared – yet widely projected – profound change in US policy regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran and all other regional governments are convinced ...
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Is the term “clean coal” an oxymoron? That’s a hot question for politicians, the energy industry and environmentalists, alike. While the words seem intuitively clear, the meaning of the term, as well as the feasibility of improving coal’s environmental impact, are in question. Originally, “clean coal” referred to any number of techniques to reduce the negative effects of burning coal. Up until recently, this has meant reducing sulphur dioxide ...
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The financial crisis changed the way people think. At least some people. In North America, the bursting of the housing bubble dispelled the myth you could get rich simply by owning a home. Likewise, people are now realizing that buying and holding stocks is not a sure-fire way to grow wealth. The "get rich easy" schemes are falling by the wayside. Leaving people to once again make money the old fashioned way. Earn it. The crisis has forced us to ask: what can I ...
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The coming year: 2010, will see a growing clash of conflicting mega-trends in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater; trends which will ultimately have long-term impact not only on the region, but on all of Eurasia and global energy and political arenas. These main mega-trends are: 1. Obama’s Needs: The desperate efforts of the US White House of Pres. Barack Obama to appease and negotiate with any element of the “Taliban” — and the label “Taliban” is used ...
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ExxonMobil's buyout of XTO Energy was the story of December. It might be the story of 2009. But equally important are the details now emerging about the deal. Particularly the "escape hatch" that Exxon built in. Exxon is buying XTO to get into the shale gas game. Shale gas is one of the true revolutions we've seen across the commodities space over the last decade. And XTO has the expertise Exxon needs to quickly become a heavyweight in this arena. But not everyone ...
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It is often assumed that what preoccupies military planners is their attempts to define the shape of future warfare so that they can adequately prepare equipment and doctrine ideal to meet the threat. Evidence, however, shows that what most occupies their attention is how to adapt existing force structures and systems to react to emerging conditions. The vast bulk of their attention, inevitably, is on the massive capital investment in weapons systems which last, often, a half-century ...
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Iraq has the world's third largest oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iraq's oil capacity could reach 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in six years. According to oil pundits, Iraq would overtake Russia and challenge Saudi Arabia for the position of the world’s largest oil producer if a daily total of 12 million barrels was achieved.
Hussein al-Shahristani told journalists in Baghdad that oil production would not necessarily operate at full capacity, but would take into account ...
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BAGHDAD - What was once considered a pipe-dream could become reality: after decades of dictatorship, war and international sanctions, Iraq’s massive oil reserves are set to be tapped proper and the country once known for two overflowing rivers could be crowned oil king. If the seven oil projects awarded to foreign oil companies this weekend, and the three from an auction earlier this year, develop as planned, within eight years, Iraq will see its oil production capacity leap to more ...
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While energy-strapped India is scouring the globe for oil and gas - a bid that recently took it to Sudan and Russia where India signed two memoranda of understanding, and to Iran where it forged two agreements – the South Asian nation is also urging energy investors to its shores. “India is thirsty for energy,” Ron Somers, president of the U.S.-India Business Council, told OilPrice.com. India, with a population of roughly 1.2 billion and a 300-million-strong middle ...
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A detailed look at Iranian Geopolitics and their Nuclear Power moves in the region. In order to survive revolutions must continue to propagate themselves or else they die; that was true of revolutions on the left that saw their golden years in the late 1950s and ‘60s in much of Latin America and communist Eastern Europe, and it true of today’s Islamist movements. To survive they need to keep moving. Understand that and you understand the basis of what drives Iran’s Islamic ...
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On December 14, 2009, an inauguration took place that deserves more attention than it received because it marks an economic power shift to the benefit of three Central Asian countries and China and to the detriment of Russia. The presidents of China - Hu Jintao, Turkmenistan - Gurlanguly Berdymukhamedov, Kazakhstan – Nursultan Nazarbayev, and Uzbekistan -Islam Karimov, inaugurated the Central Asia–China gas pipeline that links Turkmenistan’s natural gas fields on the ...
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When you analyse Natural Resource companies it’s essential you know which type you are dealing with. The first type are explorers. These are companies hoping to find something. Oil, gold, geothermal energy. They have not yet made a discovery, but they possess expertise that gives them a chance of doing so. The second type are developers. Companies that have found something. And are now working on figuring out how big, how challenging and how costly that something will be to get out ...
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For over a decade Turkey has been engaged in an uphill struggle to gain admission into the European Union. Turkey is gradually beginning to re-align its foreign policy in favor of the Arab and Muslim East. For the last several decades it was generally assumed that Israel was the United States’ staunchest ally in the Greater Middle East. But when former Nebraskan Republican Senator Chuck Hagel introduced Turkey’s prime minister in Washington last Monday, Hagel began his speech ...
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Iran is gathering momentum to become a great regional power with global implications. It is already a nuclear weapons power, with externally-acquired nuclear weapons. But the question facing Iranians and the external community is the style of governance of the country, and its specific international and grand strategy objectives. Iran's present geo-strategic position is also transformed in importance by the end of the Great Game (or at least the component of it which began with the ...
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The costs of Global Warming are tremendous, estimates of course vary but most figures put out are in the trillions. So what does this mean for you and how are you directly affected by these costs? In 2007, scientists at the Carnegie Institution measured, over the past 20 years, the annual yields of the world’s six largest crops (which account for 55% of non-meat calories consumed by humans and 70% of total animal feed)—and found that increasingly warmer temperatures led to ...
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As multinational military forces have left Iraq, international petroleum companies have eagerly descended -- seduced by the long-term potential of vast oil reserves off-limits to foreigners for decades. Yet lingering violence, legal questions and political uncertainty make doing business in this country a gamble.
In the first international oil auction held last June, widely seen as a failure, the Iraqi government awarded a firm contract to only a consortium of British Petroleum and the China ...
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History was made about ten days ago in Vienna at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency when China and Russia voted along with the United States to sanction the Islamic Republic of Iran over its continued pursuit of nuclear energy. Iran, it is believed, intends to develop the technology to produce weapons of mass destruction. So say Western nations. Iran, of course denies all such accusations, claiming its nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes. What is ...
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The world continues to thirst for oil with in an ever increasing fervor, yet simultaneously struggles to fully grasp and appreciate the obstacles encountered by those who bring that oil to their local pumps. There has always been a necessary trade-off when it comes to technology and industrial advancement, as in order to experience the many benefits modern society offers us, we have to agree to give up some portion of nature and accept a certain amount of environmental damage.Logic dictates ...
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Interesting piece on Crude oil – it’s actually quite a complex substance: Some people arbitrarily speak about oil as if it is a single, indistinguishably homogenous substance without any unique differentiation, but this is actually not the case at all! In fact, there are many different kinds of oil. In its natural, unrefined state, crude oil ranges in density and consistency, from very thin, light weight and volatile fluidity to an extremely thick, semi-solid heavy weight oil. ...
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Interesting piece on Crude oil – it’s actually quite a complex substance: Some people arbitrarily speak about oil as if it is a single, indistinguishably homogenous substance without any unique differentiation, but this is actually not the case at all! In fact, there are many different kinds of oil. In its natural, unrefined state, crude oil ranges in density and consistency, from very thin, light weight and volatile fluidity to an extremely thick, semi-solid heavy weight oil. ...
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Interesting piece on Crude oil – it’s actually quite a complex substance: Some people arbitrarily speak about oil as if it is a single, indistinguishably homogenous substance without any unique differentiation, but this is actually not the case at all! In fact, there are many different kinds of oil. In its natural, unrefined state, crude oil ranges in density and consistency, from very thin, light weight and volatile fluidity to an extremely thick, semi-solid heavy weight oil. ...
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After 40 years of bitter opposition Environmentalists concede that Nuclear Power is essential to avert further harm from Global Warming. The Nuclear Industry has felt itself vilified, constrained and damaged by the ceaseless and sometimes pathological opposition of the environmental movement, this changing attitude is manna from on high. Although very little happened, Nov. 24 was a red letter day for the nation's nuclear power industry. No new nuclear reactors were purchased, no ...
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One bonus of the global recession is that it wiped a lot of incompetent hedge fund managers and energy speculators from the canyons of Wall Street. As the Gordon Gecko sycophants regroup and look for the next Big Thing, maximizing profit while minimizing risk, the landscape looks very different than it did a year ago. In such a climate, it is uranium, not oil and natural gas that would seem to have the brightest future for one simple, overriding capitalist principle – supply and demand. ...
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As oil prices continue to hover in the high $70’s and many market commentators express their beliefs that cheap oil is a thing of the past, we find ourselves looking at the Alternative energy options and if any are a near/mid term replacement for fossil fuels. Solar, Wind and Biofuels have promised so much in the past but really aren’t delivering and will not do so for some time. Even though it’s unpalatable to some the only real alternative we have is Nuclear Energy. ...
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A detailed look at the largest Oil Companies, how they operate and who the major players in the field are. The Oil Companies take a lot of Flak, but are they as bad as you think?Companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Royal Dutch Shell now produce only 10% of the world's oil and gas and hold a mere 3% of its reserves.Big Oil’s primary “Movers & Shakers” according to “The Financial Times,” are: Aramco of Saudi Arabia, CNPC of China, Gazprom of Russia, NIOC of ...
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Can New technology divert a potential Oil Crisis? We take a look at the latest technology and techniques being used by Oil Companies in the field of Oil Drilling. With our dwindling supply of fossil fuels, oil drillers are finding themselves in great demand and as their techniques become more sophisticated Oil Fields are lasting longer and producing more of the black stuff.
Full article can be read: <a ...
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After years of over promising and under delivering, the solar Industry is finally starting to show some interesting developments which have the potential to make solar power as cheap as fossil fuel on a cost-per-watt basis within five years. Getting us to that state, called grid parity, would require solar companies to produce power for around $1 a watt. Is it possible anytime soon? Many analysts think so and the target date being touted around is 2015. The reason for this fresh optimism ...
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As scientists, Governments and Industry look for viable replacements to our quickly dwindling supply of fossil fuels, attention has again turned to biofuels and the potential they offer. You’ve all no doubt heard of Ethanol, rapeseed and other popular bio-diesel crops, but it is now possible to turn our quickly growing garbage mountains into biofuels.Scientists have now discovered some amazingly effective, mutually beneficial, symbiotic processes that could single-handedly solve both ...
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The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the ...
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The media is chock full with articles of scientists, environmentalists and Carbon Billionaires (Al Gore) – stating how mankind is destroying the planet with our use of fossil fuels and other contaminents. The fact that industry is causing ecological and environmental damage is without doubt, but are we really the cause of the high greenhouse gas levels, or should we be more concerned with natural causes such as melting permafrost. We also take a look at why the ex Leader of ...
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Most foreign investors have been focused on Central Asia’s vast hydrocarbon resources and the extractive industries of energy and Minerals. But water is an issue of rising concern throughout the region as after years of soviet mismanagement geopolitical tensions are running high. These regional problems present outside companies willing to think outside the box with an incredible opportunity and a guaranteed red carpet welcome.
Full article: ...
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The Great Geopolitical Battle Over Energy Transit Routes As we all live in the present, it is very hard to fully assess the future implications of decisions supported or made by political and business leaders. An extraordinary game of geo-strategy is under way to lock in long-term agreements, notably in the energy sector. At a global level, the transit routes of future oil & gas pipelines become the object of a power struggle involving not only the suppliers and end-users but also the ...
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The Untapped Energy Riches of Uzbekistan While many Western investors remain fixated on somehow acquiring a slice of Turkmenistan’s natural gas riches, despite a recent scandal over the country’s actual reserves, there is another country further east whose energy and mineralogical reserves have been overlooked – Uzbekistan. While a number of factors are responsible for this oversight, including relative geographical isolation (Uzbekistan, along with Liechtenstein, ...
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